Agora Media Group Innovation Blog

The latest buzz from Silicon Valley has to be the Real-time Web.
Ignited by the success of Twitter, the next evolutionary step of the Web is the real-time delivery of content, as this might be true, there’s too much noise about the Real-time Web and its implications.

Is the Real-time Web really that emerging and transformative or is it hyped and cleverly used marketing jargon?

One of the definitions I came across on the Real-time web is the following by mr. Fromm.
He wrote a series of articles about the Real-time Web for ReadWriteWeb and in the first part of the series he described the Real-time Web as:

Is a new form of communication,

Creates a new body of content,

Is real time,

Is public and has an explicit social graph associated with it,

Carries an implicit model of federation.

I do concur with them as being implications of the Real-time Web, but in effect, the Real-time Web are advancements in technology developments which make it possible to communicate -almost- in real-time. 

The description of mr. Fromm is characteristic for the buzz created on the subject, it’s overblown, it’s not a creation of a new emerging form of interaction or media,
The current buzz on the Real-time Web can be clearly spotted if we analyze Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2009 graph:

 (on a side note, I don’t fully agree with the position of Microblogging within the Peak of Inflated Expectations phase, because it’s has not ended yet by far. Takeovers and developments still fuel it, for instance the buying of Friendfeed, Facebook’s real-time messages, Bing’s incorporation of Tweets and so on)

The graph shows that microblogging, as one of the concrete usages of the Real-time Web, is within the Peak of Inflated Expectations and is heading towards the Trough of Disillusionment. After a period of hype and buzzing, microblogging will face a harsh period where companies with real useful applications will survive and for many their fifteen minutes of fame will end in this phase.

What does the Real-time Web need to overcome in order to attain mainstream adoption?

The usage of real-time communication.
Twitter is still not understood -and thus adapted- by the masses, and those who have used it are mostly skeptical towards microblogging. A cause is the processing of real-time information without getting an overload.
The Hype Cycle states mainstream adoption in two to five years. Technology developments are once again the solutions and initiators of a (sub-) cycle  for an easier processing and understanding of real-time information.

More important, prior to the usage is:
The benefits of real-time information.
How can companies benefit from the Real-time Web in terms of intelligence, customer understanding, industry developments, internal company enhancements etc?
Enterprise usage of real-time communication and information will not adopt before it is clear what the added value is. The Peak of Inflated Expectations won’t speed this process up.

The Real-time Web won’t emerge as long as users and everybody else in the process have found useful, applicable and realistic reasons for it.
The phase beyond hype, where relativation and perspective will take over, is approaching.
What’s your opinion, what will thrive and what won’t survive?