Agora Media Group Innovation Blog

Gartner’s Hype Cycles and Priority Matrices are used by many as part of the technology-planning process and a way to understand the trends, expectations and create snapshots of technologies.
The reports by Gartner are annual and give an assessement of 1,800 technologies and trends.

Below you will find an introduction on the Hype Cycle and the Priority Matrix and where emerging technologies are in the Hype Cycle.

What is the Hype Cycle?
Gartner states:
“Gartner’s Hype Cycle characterizes the typical progression of an emerging technology, from overenthusiasm through a period of disillusionment to an eventual understanding of the technology’s relevance and role in a market or domain. Each phase is characterized by distinct indicators of market, investment and adoption activities.”

What is the Priority Matrix Graphic?
Gartner states:
“The Priority Matrix is a tool for prioritizing emerging technologies by forcing technology planners to look beyond the hype and assess technology opportunities in terms of their relative impact on the enterprise and the timing of that impact.”

What does it mean for you?
As explained by Gartner it will help you as a company to understand what the trends are, where to look at (be it for internal or business/growth opportunities) and what the “state” of these technologies are.
Jumping bandwagons without solid trend information does happen often, depending on the corporate culture (Innovator for instance) this can be good, for many others an understanding before applying technologies is a sure way to go.

For us Agora Media / AppMarket.tv it means to understand technologies like Augmented Reality, mobile technologies and convergent technologies, what the benefit and mainstream adoption timeframe is.
The latter is important for planning and business development. Too early has its advantages but also challenges, entering too late the market means losing share and a certain brand recognition/positioning.

Gartner provides many Hype Cycles, which you can find on this page.
For this article, three of the Hype Cycles that are relevant for our business are:
“Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2010″
“Hype Cycle for E-Commerce, 2010″
“Hype Cycle for Business Use of Social Technologies, 2010″

Below you’ll find the individual technologies that are mentioned in the “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2010″ and where they are situated in the Hype Cycle.

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PRNewsWire reports that MTV Networks acquired Social Express, a social gaming development company, marking the company’s first entry into the social gaming space.

The company will create severeal games based on Nickelodeon and MTV shows and characters.

Chairman and CEO of MTV Networks, Judy McGrath, says:

“Social gaming is one of the biggest drivers of the explosive growth in social media – it’s fun, it’s engaging, and it’s shareable,” said Judy McGrath, Chairman and CEO of MTV Networks.  ”Social Express brings us strong experience and know-how in this burgeoning space, which we’ll supercharge with the IP and scale of Nickelodeon and other MTV Networks brands to create great new social gaming experiences for our fans and cool tools for independent developers as well.”

On a conceptual level, it will be interesting to learn if MTV Networks will head towards transmedia entertainment concepts, incorporating television programs, websites and social games to create a full-fledged integral storytelling.
Each medium will serve another purpose and like McGrath already states, Social gaming is fun and engaging, two ingredients which could add a new experience and layer to existing or new concepts.

Transmedia concepts do exists and there are great examples, for instance the Happiness Factory by Coca Cola.
The Happiness Factory is a virtual world of characters living inside a vending machine. The series lives across multiple channels, including commercials, interactive video games, and a musical soundtrack that features a variety of artists. The series provides Coca-Cola with additional revenue streams, and customers with a fun brand experience.

MTV Networks could do similar concepts based on Nickelodeon and MTV shows and characters, taking it a step further, taking the engagement of the viewers of MTV a step further.

What do you think of the potential MTV Networks has with Social Gaming?
Is the Entertainment industry perfect for transmedia concepts?

We write extensively on Augmented Reality and Social TV on the Agora Media Group blog, being emerging and disruptive technologies (and also altered “behavior”) that have a bright future according to MIT and Gartner, to name a few.

Q: Where do these two mutually intersect?
A: On the level of two-screen solutions and applications/widgets.

Wikipedia says on two-screen solutions:

“Two-screen”, or “synchronous solutions”, are a form of interactive TV that enables information about a TV show to be accessed via the internet on a mobile phone, laptop or desktop PC. Unlike one-screen interactive TV solutions, where all of the interactivity is on the television, two-screen applications are typically done from a computer, and are free to the user. In these cases, users are not changing the content on the television, they are accessing supplementary information about the show. The difference between two-screens and normal web pages are the two-screens are relevant to the live programming, refreshed in real-time, and often provide social networking around live broadcasts.

Augmenting the TV experience in a one-screen solution is happening, sure, think of teletext or subtitles for instance.
But the augmentation is up to a certain level, due to the content and focus it has on that certain time.

Two-screen solutions on the other hand enable augmentating of the TV experience to a new level, where it comes into its own.
These kind of solutions are great for multitaskers and the information hungry society we live in.
Social complementary solutions which will connect you with friends and recommendations on the second screen, whilst consuming the core content via TV.
One can ask him-/herself if the TV content is primary or simply the reason for social activity.
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Originally posted on Travolon – B2B Travel Experts

Again news for the travel industry, last week it was the rumor on a potential Google & ITA deal, now it’s Apple (increasing rivalry between them and Google) which comes with iTravel, Apple’s way of revolutionizing the travel industry.

What iTravel basically does is converging the complete travel process for the iPhone.
A complementary – thus competitive and unique – combination of iPhone hardware and software will enable travelers to search, plan and book flights, hotels, rentals and much more.
At the airport you’ll be able to handle luggage and boarding passes.

At this time, iTravel is in the patent stage, for more information on iTravel, have a look at PatentlyApple.

Two questions arise:
* What does this mean for travel marketers?
A new distribution channel might come available, because it’s Apple, will this mean a next step in disintermediation?

* Is Apple able to disrupt the travel industry, exactly because of the centralized position their device (iPhone) will have?
If Apple is able to penetrate key industries, the usage of one mighty device is in their advantage and reach.
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We are currently working on building AppMarket.tv, the first online portal, community, directory for the emerging industry around TV applications and widgets – an inevitability as TV and the Web come together full force in a convergence that will easily open new doors for the web and mobile development communities due to ported platforms such as HTML 5, Apple, Android, Flash and other technologies that will make up the future landscape on TV.

Please add your company in our directory if you are in the business. It’s free… Or even if you have relevant experience and ‘want’ to offer your portfolio of skills to the industry. If you want to write with us, contact us via the site. Share the knowledge. Brand yourself or your company.

AppMarket.tv Manifesto

We composed a Manifesto (click to read complete Manifesto), explaining our vision on the evolution of the industry.

Manifesto
Appmarket.tv is the Internet’s first portal dedicated to application and middleware development communities in the Social TV and Connected TV landscape.

We support open API’s, SDK’s, WDK’s and our own roots lie in Open Source communities. It’s our opinion that completely closed, proprietary development in this emerging space will fail and models that are built on more systems similar to the Iphone App and Facebook Application worlds will do well. Truly open source software like Google’s Android will likely be the winners.

Revenue sharing between corporate entities and small businesses around and a prevalence of freemium models will appear and flourish. And a new word will enter tech lexicon. tCommerce.

Future advertising models on TV will be dependent on interaction and creative ways to bring brands to viewers as future audiences will no longer accept ‘broken’ TV… or TV with a slew of interruptions. Video On Demand (VOD) and TV in the Cloud, ubiquitous and everywhere, will change that. I expect my daughters, in the future, to think it was novel how they used to have to watch certain programs at certain times when they were young.

The TV industry, like many other’s affected by disruptive and game changing technologies, is a mess. There are so many players and so many technologies right now which is both good and bad. Darwinists say the best will survive, but in the meantime… directional decisions we make now can really affect our futures. There are a lot of choices for developers, investors and consumers. And we want to help sort it out by providing a solid directory, consolidating events worldwide to help us all plan better, and even meet!

Collective Intelligence
We can’t build AppMarket.tv up without the collective intelligence on this industry which is out there, fragmented amongst many industry leaders, technologists, evangelists etc.
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The last week much has already been written about the possible acquisition of ITA by Google.

As mentioned on Bloomberg:

“Google’s mission is to organize the world’s information, and ITA does that for travel,” said Henry Harteveldt, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc. in San Francisco.

With this mission comes their advertising model, adding ITA’s will enhance the travel information they can provide users.
Increased relevance for the users means higher earnings for Google due to the higher costs which are paid by advertisers.
Google has five times more search volume than Bing has in the US, with the addition of ITA’s software, quality can increase due to the enhanced search and buying experience.
Bloomberg Businessweek reports:

With tools that help users find flight information online, ITA Software may help Google compete with travel-search features offered by Microsoft. The companies are tussling for share in the U.S. market for online travel, which generated $88.4 billion in sales last year, according to Sherman, Connecticut travel consulting firm PhoCusWright Inc.

One of the most sophisticated travel-search features offered by Microsoft is the Farecast technology which is the basis of Bing Travel.

From the customer point of perspective it all sounds pretty logical and fine, who wouldn’t want a shorter buying journey?
Though from the B2B point of view, it’s a different story, hence my initial question.
Google would not only intermingle with the offline agents, but as well with their online equivalents, the OTAs. The ultimate “direct” supplier has signed in.
As mentioned by this analyst:

Since the GDS power both of those channels, there would most certainly be a major impact to their transaction volume for air ticket sales, which is what drives their business model.

If Google is able to kill two birds with one stone, namely further disintermediation of the travel supply chain and a higher search share from Microsoft (and others), it has a potential winner.
This will go accompanied by power shifts in both the industries (Search and Travel), how do you think they will respond?
What’s your general opinion on this possible acquisition?

This afternoon you can amaze yourself on the Dam Square in Amsterdam, seeing all kinds of odd characters through your iPhone or Android.
3D digital statues can be seen with the Layar application.

This afternoon, at exactly 14:00h (GMT+1), the Dam Square won’t be what it normally is, the Square will be taken over by people who explore the square by means of Augmented Reality, holding up phones and investigating their surroundings.
I do wonder what the expressions will be of people who don’t know about the Augmented Reality Flashmob?

This idea comes from Sander Veenhof:

“Every square in every major city in the world knows the ‘human statue’ phenomenon. On the Dam Square in Amsterdam Darth Vader, Superman, a Gladiator and some undecipherable sort of gothic characters colour the scene.“

Visit the website to install the appropriate software and such in order to be part of this AR event.
The procedure is as following:

PROCEDURE FOR SATURDAY THE 24TH:

- prepare your phone with the right software, see left column
- iPhone users can download and use the Layar app to activate the flashmob AR view
- downloadable ‘human sculpture’ models will be available for Android phones
- to bring your own 3D model, create obj/mtl files and put them on an Android phone
- to do so, get the AndAR application from the market (* on 23rd of April)
- AR tags on the ground will be provided

All use the #ARFlashMob hashtag!
Looking forward to comments and experiences this afternoon.

I came across a new patent which is filed by Apple on PatentlyApple.com.

It describes in detail what Apple how Apple is planning to revolutionize the current ticketing process, plus enhancing the event experience itself.
For further details, have a look at the article on PatentlyApple.com.

For me, two immediate questions arise.

Is Apple trying to smartly achieve a kind of All-you-need-is-the-iPhone state?
By centralizing processes and ascribing them to this device, a powerfull influence is created for the iPhone. Surely iTunes and it’s music is part of this move, but the centralized modus for the iPhone can of course be expanded to many other purposes as well.

Secondly, based on Porter’s Five Forces model, what will the impact be if Apple enters this business?
It certainly will put emphasis on the entry of a new player and the threat of substitute products/services. The patent refers to giving access to live recordings of the concert which visitors just attended or access to exclusive interviews. Who wouldn’t want this? It’s all additional and easy to access content, this will have consequences for other ticketing businesses who can’t offer this.
iTunes is a platform used by many, the bargaining power of customers will increase due to its innovative approach, raising the current intensity amongst existing players to outsmart Apple and “conventional” ticketing business.

Do you think the iPhone becomes the all-in-one-device?
If this will happen, how do you see the future or developments of the ticketing industry?

The relatively new Streaming API by Twitter makes it possible to achieve the following (taken from the Twitter blog):

• You’re visualizing tweets in real-time online or on-air.
• You want to present tweets in a continuously-refreshing experience, e.g, you want to broadcast new NCAA basketball tweets as they’re created.
• You’re following a specific group of users in real-time, e.g. a group of reporters.
• You want to capture a very large number of tweets for analysis (either real-time or after-the-fact), e.g. all the tweets about a State of the Union address.

These are interesting applications which can and will have impact on TV formats and concepts. Real-time integration of User Generated Content (UGC) into the TV content.

In the further integration of TV and Web, Twitter has been tested more than once in bridging the two, think of TV Chatter and Chitter.tv, both are efforts and learning curves in order to understand relationships between the two and how people consume their content.
Another interesting effort is Twision, the Spanish Twitter driven TV show. Have a look at the video (Spanish spoken) to have an idea how the concept works.

Both have different approaches and will benefit by the Streaming API opportunities.

What are the different approaches?
TV Chatter and Chitter.tv are sites which bundle tweets/UGC around other content. A network of information is created and displayed around the broadcast.
Twision on the other hand goes further in its integration of co-creational efforts. In this program, viewers co-create with the presentators the content which is real-time broadcasted.

I have tested both TV Chatter and Chitter.tv, and the distribution of attention between the broadcast and the network tweeting around it, makes it difficult to follow both.
The two require attention in order to be fully experienced and understood. I got the feeling that the television was on the “background” in a kind of multitasking way where the served Web content was the primary focus.

However the TV Chatters’ are solutions “in between” and easier, for an integral experience of TV and Web, Twision formats are the future. Not only format- and technology-wise, but more importantly, from a prosumerist and co-creational concept. To create a near real-time experience, the power of the Streaming API willl add its value.

Regarding the last point, capturing tweets for analysis, could prove itself to be an important addition to Social Network Analysis (SNA), real-time uncovering patterns and relationships.
Besides the insights and knowledge acquirement, this kind of UGC can be moulded into a business model, able to be accessed by companies to learn more about their target groups and further granulate marketing efforts.
It can be a revenue stream for Twitter, in a partnership model or otherwise.

What do you think of the Streaming API and its possible effect on TV?

by Gianluigi  Cuccureddu and Richard Kastelein

The following quotes are taken from ConnectedTVSummit and they do point out to a major shift in hardware which is followed by software/applications that will transform the industry and experience:

Global revenues for connected TVs will reach $29 billion in 2011, accounting for 58% of global revenues for Internet TV equipment that year. 12.5% of 2010 global TVs shipped will have connectivity, rising to 30% in 2011.
IMS Research, January 2010

Our research shows that within five years nearly all broadband households will own at least one web-enabled CE media device.The implications of this across the digital entertainment industry will be huge.”
Norm Bogen, In-Stat analyst, January 2010

Game consoles already have the lead in this segment, which can mostly be attributed to gamer demographics . I think that even gamers will switch to accessing Internet video mostly on the TV in order to have a one-stop access point to the different content libraries. Having one programme guide is much easier to navigate then searching independently on different devices.”
Rebecca Kurlak, IMS Research consumer electronics analyst, January 2010

Worldwide shipments of web-enabled stationary CE devices will grow more than seven-fold from their 2009 levels to over 230 million by 2013.  There will be over one-half billion web-enabled CE devices in operation worldwide by 2013.
In-Stat, January 2010

CE device manufacturers will be able to enjoy revenue shares on content, which could be as high as 50%.
Rebecca Kurlak, IMS Research consumer electronics analyst, January 2010

When having a look at the timing of the quotes with regard to the evolution, the future of all this is closely. Also other institutions/articles point out to a first real shift in 2010 and 2011 where adoption and diffusion will reach a substantial figure.

Other interesting and positive quotes can be found in this recent analysis and article by Bloomberg:

It’s no longer a bridge too far for the average user,” said Michael Powell, a former chairman of the Federal Communications Commission who now runs a media consulting firm. Using TVs to connect to the Internet “is a very natural extension of what they’ve already embraced in their technological life.

The difference now is new Internet televisions won’t require separate boxes, software and setup, says Steve Perlman, the founder of WebTV. The TV will already be connected to the Web, and consumers will get everything they need through that.

It is going to happen — it’s inevitable,” Perlman said. “We’re going to see a general movement toward having all of your content that is available through the Internet.

The fact is, it appears that the next generation of Internet-connected TV’s are going to come out faster than most anticipated, and this means  that the need for  Set Top Boxes (STB’s)  will eventually reduce and even possibly phase out in the future.  This is certainly a real game changer and lowers the perceive risks and complexity of the end consumers.

Perlman’s quote that we’ll see a general movement towards having all the content available through the Web is a positive outlook and simultaneously a challenge in not simply transferring media from device to device and not having a thorough look at the device, usage/purpose of device in relation to the needs and consumption of consumers.

This challenge was also pointed out in the Android TV article.

The industry is ready for it, most definately, what about the end-consumers?

Do you think there will be a fast adoption and usage? How will the collective experience of watching passive TV be impacted by elements of individual social interaction such as Twitter and Facebook via tv widgets and apps? Or will it?

Forty years ago, the brilliant Canadian media theorist Marshall Mcluhan, the  “patron saint” of Wired magazine,  (who brought us Electronic Interdependence, The Global Village and The Medium is the Massage) metaphorically considered the TV to be an ‘electronic’ hearth – a collective centralized event for the family on the cusp of it’s appearance in the home 50 years ago. By the end of the millenium, TV’s peppered houses and became a more individual experience. In the USA,  the average house now has 2.24 TV’s and 66 per cent of households have three or more TV’s.

Will the TV continue to evolve as an individual device in a new ‘TV Everywhere’ world? And just become part of a matrix of interactive devices available to each individual?

And how will Google fit into the picture? The world’s largest brand is certainly heading for the space. They are not issuing any formal statements on their future in this landscape, but look at what they want in their new hires – http://bit.ly/gootv.

We think that Google TV and Sony along with their other partners at Intel and Logitech could also play a large part in this new landscape.